The Future of Europe

Veronika Heller
Mar 11
4 min read

Disclaimer: this article explores topics that can be perceived as politically sensitive.

Europe is currently being shaken. No matter what one sees as the catalyst – whether it is the Ukraine War, the current President of the United States, the Financial Crisis of 2008, or other causes – in the eyes of many, things are getting more uncertain and fragile in Europe (as well as for the rest of the world).

With the President of the European Union, Von der Leyen, expressing that ‘we are confronted with a danger none of us have seen in their adult lifetime’ and Prime Minister Starmer calling it ‘a crossroad in history’, what can we expect from the future?

While there are expressions like these, some others have claimed that the current situation is only temporary or exaggerated.

Whatever is seen as true, this article will focus on the perspective of those who see a danger of war, loss of democracy, loss of rule and law. With this in mind: can Europe stay hopeful for its future?

The loss of the United States as an ally (?)

With the trade and foreign affair policies introduced by the new US-American government, Europe has lost a once very supportive friend. Some experts go as far as saying “The west is over – Europe is on its own” (Alexander Hurst, Economist, writer for The Guardian), but there is chance that this will only be for the short-term, as Europe culturally and historically has many strong connections to the US. As Barack Obama said: ‘there is more that unites us than that divides us’ (1). While it is likely that the reestablishment of this relationship will come, how long this will take, however, is uncertain.

The US was not just a supporter, but also an example for democracy and economic success. It poses the question of who will offer similar support and encouragement to Europe in the future.

It is possible that economies like Spain’s will become the new example for the rest of Europe. Is it solar panels instead of ‘drill baby drill’? Some have suggested that the current situation could be a start to a shift away from capitalism as we know it, to a system of ‘sustainable capitalism‘. But for the time being, it is uncertain how this will unfold.

The rise of autocrats within

Countries like Hungary and Slovakia, increasingly strong right-wing parties, and an increase in the presence of Eurosceptic parties (2), can be seen as a threat to democracy and the existing unity of Europe, as they might polarise the interests of nations within the continent.

In the long-term, there is the danger of these parties taking significant influence on political decision-making on foreign and on domestic affairs. The solutions to preventing this are not clearly defined yet.

Danger of a self-fulfilling prophecy

In such times of uncertainty and increased tension, it is important to separate fact from frantic speculations. Research has shown that having an expectation of something negative to happen leads one to pay more attention to the negatives, which can then lead to a seeming confirmation in what one has expected (3). This can cause that the expected outcome becomes reality. Therefore, it is important to stay aware of the true reality, of the facts.

If many people believe that something bad is going happen, it is more likely to happen. Having an optimistic mindset could have the power to shape the outcome for the better. Ultimately, staying hopeful will help you, the people around you, and the collective as a whole.

Factors we can (hope to) rely on

In any democratic state with a constitution, the law provides a framework to check against what happens politically. In the US, for example, President Trump had stopped USAID, which according to the Supreme Court was ruled illegal, resulting in the US now having to pay USAID contractors - albeit only for work that has already been completed (4). If the legal institutions can hold, there is much hope.

European leadership is – and will become even more – vital. As seen in the recent weeks, Europe’s leaders are willing to work together and in a collective way. Macron, Starmer, Tusk, Merz, and Trudeau have so far been a powerful team.

Resistance in the population, although seemingly small, is there, and is able to provide optimism. Whether it is the ‘Brandmauer gegen rechts’ demonstrations in Germany, the successful ‘Buy Canadian’ campaign in Canada, or even the massive drop in the value of the Tesla stock. There is resistance. Now it only has to grow further.

The Significance of the time frame

The duration of the current crisis remains uncertain. Some believe it is only short-term and has started recently, others see it is a large-scale power shift that has developed over decades, and one which will influence Europe in the long-term. The main question that should be of concern is: is it the end or the beginning?

While some suggest that it is the end of Europe and the US as a world-dominating power (as ‘The West’), others are of the opinion that Europe will emerge stronger than before. Either way, it can be seen as a wake-up call to Europe that something has to change.

Will Europe emerge from the ashes as a stronger-than-before bounded superpower, or is it the start of the decline of the world order as we know it?

Only the future will provide us with answers.